Spain
is on course for another recession after GDP contracted 0.3% at
the end of last year, while the cost of insuring Portuguese debt
has hit a new record
Spanish
PM Mariano Rajoy held talks with European commission president José
Manuel Barroso
Pressure on EU leaders to relax their insistence on strict austerity
measures intensified on Monday after Spain revealed that its economy
contracted in the last three months of 2011 and the cost of insuring
Portugal's debt soared to a record high.
Spain's output dropped by 0.3% during
the fourth quarter of 2011 compared with the previous three months,
according to official data, confirming the view of the prime minister,
Mariano Rajoy, that the economy is sliding into recession.
The figures followed unemployment
data last week that shocked EU politicians after it revealed a 350,000
rise in the total out of work, taking the jobless rate to 22.8%
and above 5 million.
Madrid said it wanted officials
in Brussels to discuss how countries such as Spain can grow before
any agreements are reached on further austerity measures.
The economy is expected to slide
further in the first quarter of this year, placing Spain in its
second recession in less than three years. A technical recession
is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction.
The figure announced by the Spanish
statistical office, INE, broke a run of seven quarters without economic
contraction.
Compared with a year earlier, gross
domestic product rose 0.3%, the INE said. For all of 2011, it increased
0.7%.
Portugal's slide towards a Greek-style
second bailout accelerated after its principal private lenders indicated
that they were growing weary of assurances from Lisbon that it could
get on top of the country's debts.
Business and consumer confidence
also hit record lows, following a string of pay cuts and across-the-board
tax hikes that were part of Portugal's painful austerity programme.
Banks and others offering insurance
against default to holders of Portuguese sovereign debt have begun
demanding huge payments upfront rather than allowing costs to be
spread over the term of the contract. This means that it costs €3.95m
(£3.3m) to insure €10m in bonds over five years, payable
now.
Analysts said that this made Portugal
the second most costly sovereign debt to insure in the world, after
Greece, and implied a huge lack of confidence in market circles
about Lisbon's future.
Portuguese bonds have come under
particularly intense pressure from investors after Standard &
Poor's downgraded 15 eurozone countries earlier this month, putting
Portugal in the "junk" category.
Portugal's 10-year bond yields surged
on Monday to just under 16%, more than twice the level that is generally
considered unsustainable.
John Higgins and Ben May, economists
at Capital Economics, said Portugal would be forced out of the single
currency, probably next year. Capital Economics has already predicted
Greece will leave in 2012.
"The surge in yields in Portugal,
which has taken place since the country's credit rating was lowered
to sub-investment grade earlier this month by Standard & Poor's
ratings agency, reflects growing scepticism that private-sector
involvement in eurozone sovereign debt restructurings will only
be applied in the case of Greece," they said in a report.
Business and consumer confidence
nudged higher on average across the EU despite the fall in Portugal,
though analysts were hard-pressed to explain why sentiment had improved
this month against a backdrop of huge anxiety while negotiations
continued in Athens over the fate of Greece and talks over closer
fiscal unity were undermined by Britain's use of its opt-out.
UK consumer confidence rose, according
to the Mmarket research firm GfK NOP, though it remains "seriously
depressed".
Nick Moon, managing director of
GfK NOP Social Research, said falls in inflation and energy prices
were behind the rise. He said the feel-good factor may return with
added strength with the arrival of the Olympics and the Queen's
diamond jubilee, which could improve expectations for the economy
and people's own finances.

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